Italy - Serie A

[quantumleap]

I'm trying to do some capping for the European leagues other than England's Premiership. I've done horribly in the Spanish Primera Liga but have done rather well in the French Ligue 1.

Here's my 2nd try at the Italian Serie A league. I still can't believe I didn't weight my 2 picks for the in-game Reggina/Juventus match earlier today. I could have guaranteed a 0.50 unit gain regardless of the tie or win for Reggina. Lesson learned.

This pick is not mean to be kept in my running total.

Lecce pk and -0.5 +102 over Udinese
Lecce has not lost at home this year and will want to put forth a good effort as they are 5 points behind 2nd-place AC Milan. Lecce has scored 11 goals in 4 matches at home while only allowing 4. Lecce suffered a 4-0 defeat on the road in their last match with Fiorentia so this also will be motivation to do well here. Udinese has only scored 2 goals in 4 matches on the road this year.

Good luck!

 

[GameBreaker]

I like this pick and I am going to take a shot with it. Good luck and lets hope I wake up with a winner. Thanks for the play.

 

[quantumleap]

Good luck GB.

I'm just throwing this one out at a lean. Not to be counted in the running total.

Udinese/Lecce over 2.5 -125 (bet365.com)
Udinese has a good defense so I put this one out with caution. Pinnacle had this one at 2.5 and 3.0 so I thought I might find a better price and I did. Lecce has had 8 of their 9 matches go over 2.5.

Here's a quote from Lecce coach Zdenek Zeman-
"My team will continue to attack even if we take risks in defence," he said. "This team's strength is in offence and we will continue to play like this. What we have to improve on is creating more goalscoring chances."

 

[soccerbob]

quantum- I would like the over there a bit more but Udinese just can't score on the road but I think you've got the right idea with the home side and the over.

As I was looking at tomorrow's games a bit closer, I get the feeling that this is the spot where AC Milan breaks out and just puts a beating on AS Roma. Roma are a mess right now and with Juventus losing today, this match gives AC Milan a chance to pick up three points in the table. Roma's defense is awful and I think Milan jumps out to a quick start and puts it to Roma.

 

[quantumleap]

soccerbob:

I remember your remarks earlier in the season about Roma being bad (just before their CL match with Real Madrid) so I faded them in my CL picks. I have recently noticed that they have picked things up winning 5-1 against Cagliari and tying Leverkusen so I chosen not to fade them this weekend. However, I like your points about AC Milan having the motivation to do well here because of the Juventus loss.

I agree with you about Udinese not scoring on the road. That has me concerned and that is why the total is just a lean. However, I feel Lecce could score 3 on their own or perhaps even a 2-1 match could be found here.

Thanks for the input and good luck on AC Milan.

 

[quantumleap]

Final score:
Udinese 4, Lecce 3

Wow! What a match as Lecce ties it up 3-3 in the 89th minute only to have Udinese go ahead a minute later. How in the hell did Udinese score 4 goals in 1 match???

Anyway, the total goes over of course.

 

[quantumleap]

Again, since this is all for fun I found an interesting prop bet at bet365.com.

AC Milan/Roma over 13 corners +110 (currently at HT)
The current # of corners in the AC Milan/Roma match is at 8 and the match is at halftime. The price for "over 13 corners" is at +110. Soccerbob or acw or anyone else, are there fewer corners in the 2nd half to make an equal bet?

Since I'm not that familiar with corner betting I will not bet this one for real.

 

[quantumleap]

The line for corner kicks at the 79th minute is "over 14 corners" at +150 with 12 corners taken. Perhaps there aren't many corners taken in the last 10 minutes or so. I would think that there would be as two teams tied at 1-1 would want to play defense well and kick the ball beyond the end line.

Final report to follow.